|
Jan. 1, 2000: €1 =US $1.01
When the annual odometer turned over
to The Big Two-Thousand, things looked positively rosy in Europe. No
more divided Germany. Former border outposts and customs houses
literally going to seed. Commerce moving in all directions.
As the 2000s progressed, the shining example of the New Europe
came with a unifying currency: the euro. Exchange rates could go out
the window, as continental commerce could be equalized and one monetary
system could represent Europe in the world.
A secret hope
of some European economists, as preparations began to change 13
national currencies to the euro, would’ve been a shift in the balance
of economic power worldwide. As it turned out, they got their wish.
And,
in walking the aisles of Stone+tec 2005 in Nuremberg, Germany, in late
May, nobody’s particularly happy that this financial fantasy became
reality. In the international stone trade, the market did shift because
of the euro … but Europeans aren’t sitting at the head of the table.
June 30, 2000: €1 = US 95¢The
euro looked like the best thing to happen to U.S./Europe trade,
including stone, when it came to simple buying and selling. Outside of
currency buffs and some super-nationalists in some European countries –
and, of course, Margaret Thatcher and her devotion to the pound
sterling – everyone liked the idea of the euro.
For one
thing, U.S. customers of stone could look at the euro – somewhat
erroneously, although it didn’t matter much in the early 2000s – as the
continental version of the U.S. dollar. To us in the U.S., anything
looked better than trying to convert and account for Italy’s lira
Oct. 27, 2000: €1 = US 83¢The
euro began to look fantastic as its value began to vary and it found
its own value in the market. At this point – and at other times, such
as mid-2001 – you could get more for your money.
In the
U.S., these were the great days of the euro, where suppliers and
fabricators could engage in arbitrage. At the beginning of 2000, a
€200,000 machine cost $200,000, give or take a couple of grand. At 83
cents to a euro, though, that €200,000 is really $166,000, providing a
17-percent savings.
Of course, producers in euro-based
countries could (and did) adjust prices to compensate for the decline
in value of their currency … but this is all in the process of
embarking in a new age of finance.
June 30, 2002: €1 = US 99¢Finally,
when the euro began to climb out of the 10-percent-or-better discount
range, European selling and U.S. buying began to equal out – in theory,
at least. All you need to do is adjust prices back to reflect the
changed value of the dollar, and the market is balanced again.
Unfortunately, that didn’t happen. Some European manufacturers and stone suppliers liked the idea of arbitrage working in their favor for a while. Why not keep prices or raise them a bit?
Dec. 5, 2002: €1 = US $1.00I’ve
mentioned before that this day noted two things – an blizzard
descending on Baltimore during that year’s StonExpo, and the day that
one euro began its current string of trading at a value equal to, or
more than, one U.S. dollar.
If there’s any blame to
pass around on what’s happened since to the euro and the dollar, don’t
point fingers at Brussels or Berlin or Bologna. Direct your digits of
detriment squarely at the White House, where a weak dollar is
apparently the key to the long-term recovery from the Internet bubble
of Bill Clinton and the post-terrorist-attacks economic slowdown under
George W. Bush.
This economic policy – possibly the only
discernible one from the current administration – does wonders for some
trading partners such as China, where the yuan hews extremely close to
the U.S. dollar. For Europe, it’s another matter – just how high can
the euro go in gaining strength?
June 1, 2003: €1 = US $1.17For
many exhibitors at Stone+tec 2003, the United States is already a
hands-off market. There’s plenty of talk about the euro being out of
whack in dealing with U.S. customers. Who’s interested in a €200,000
machine that, just seven months ago, was $200,000 – and now costs
$234,000?
Maybe in a little while the situation will
change and things will get better, I heard again and again. I heard it
at Marmomacc in Verona that year, too.
June 30, 2004: €1 = US $1.21There’s
not much talk about things getting better. Most of the chatter comes
from U.S. distributors, who complain that euro-based vendors are
holding onto artificially high prices and gouging overseas customers.
An
economist would argue that this statement is correct. A European
business owner would point out that he and his workers are getting
crunched by an indifferent world economy and less buying power of the
euro because of its economic strength. Major price adjustments on the
current stock of goods would make for great theory, and also cause
insolvency.
Dec. 31, 2004: €1 = US $1.36Economic
winter comes at year’s end, as the euro hits the high-water mark. It
portends a slow beginning to 2005 for many in Europe that still lingers
as exhibitors arrive in Nuremberg for this year’s Stone+tec. Not only
are European stone merchants and equipment manufacturers glum; they see
their show dominated by non-continental exhibitors, especially the
Chinese.
Questions about doing business in the United
States are answered, at best, with a shrug. One day the exchange rate
will change, but it’s hard to get excited about a market where, in
October 2000, ar €200,000 machine sold for $166,000 – and, at the end
of 2004, the exact same machine carried a $272,000 price tag.? June 14, 2005: €1 = US $1.21 Maybe
things are getting better. The exchange rates are falling, mainly due
to the recent jettisoning of the European constitution by France and
The Netherlands. (Switzerland, at the same time, approved it – but they
don’t use the euro, either.) As a result, the “one continent, one
economy” idea may get some needed tuning to encourage a better trade
position outside the continent.
The U.S. market isn’t
finished for the European stone industry. Stone itself will be a tough
sell, but it’s going to be a high-quality niche business anyway for all
but the massive-volume exporting countries. And machinery can still do
well, as equipment imports from non-euro countries (mainly China) are
only now gaining attention.
And, of course, there’ll
always be an England, where people seem keen to purge Baroness Thatcher
from their collective memory … and then, when they hold a few
five-pound notes in hand and think of the euro’s problems, mumble a
quiet, “Er, that Maggie. God bless ‘er.”
Emerson Schwartzkopf can be reached at
This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
|